I'm reading a book - as anyone who has had contact with me in the last month will know - called The Black Swan.

When I tell people how it is revolutionary and incredible and blah blah, they ask why. And I can't explain the premise of the book succinctly and the conversation ends with them thinking I'm mad or stupid. Or both.

So, in a way that can be edited and revised, here goes...

We used to believe that all swans were white. But then someone found a black swan in Australia, and suddenly not all swans are white. The important fact is that no matter how many white swans we saw, it didn't allow us to accurately say "all swans are white" as witnessing any number of white swans did not prove the non-existance of black swans. Yet we said it, and took it as an absolute, unequivocal truth. And we naturally do this with the entire world every day. And we're wrong.

A black swan 'event' is one that is unforeseen due to this (and four other) illogical tendencies of humans, that also has massive consequences and that we apply post-event explanations to.

You're now on page 135.

Now read Malcolm Gladwell's 2002 piece on the author's investment fund:
http://www.gladwell.com/2002/2002_04_29_a_blowingup.htm

The idea of a 'perfect storm' of unlikely events is commonly understood. It's the explanation for air crashes and financial crashes and other disasters. And as humans we accept the 'perfect storm' explanation. But we shouldn't, we should understand that nearly all events of note, good or bad, are caused by 'perfect storm' black swan events. Our very existence is a black swan event. Yet our daily routine is betting *against* black swan events, which are bound to happen eventually!

Look, I'm not mad. Or stupid. Just read the damn book, OK?
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515